Grayscale：元宇宙Web 3.0 虚拟云经济（EN）.pdf

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1、Grayscale Research | November 2021 THE METAVERSE Web 3.0 Virtual Cloud Economies PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.22021 Grayscale Investments, LLCCrypto cloud economies are the next emerging market investment frontier and the Metaverse is at the forefr

2、ont of this Web 3.0 internet evolution. The Metaverse is a set of interconnected, experiential, 3D virtual worlds where people located anywhere can socialize in real-time to form a persistent, user-owned, internet economy spanning the digital and physical worlds. The Metaverse is still emerging, but

3、 many key components have started to take shape and are revolutionizing everything from e-commerce to media & entertainment, and even real estate. Our Grayscale Decentraland Report and Decentraland Tour make this concept more tangible by introducing one of the leading blockchain-based virtual worlds

4、Decentraland. Projects like Decentraland are creating an open-world metaverse where users can log in to play games, earn MANA (the native token of Decentraland, with which users can purchase NFTs, including LAND or collectibles, and vote on economy governance), or create NFTs, giving them real world

5、 interoperability for the value of their time spent in-game. The potential of this internet evolution has started to attract Web 2.0 companies like Facebook, which is shifting to a Metaverse company and is changing its name to “Meta”. At this inflection point, other leading Web 2.0 tech companies wi

6、ll likely need to start exploring the Metaverse to stay competitive, and the spotlight has prompted a new wave of investment in this emerging crypto category. THE METAVERSEBy David Grider, Head of Research & Matt Maximo, Research Analyst 123456PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION

7、AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.32021 Grayscale Investments, LLCThe MetaverseThe Meta ThesisThe Meta Market OpportunityThe Meta Web 3.0 EconomyThe Meta Web 3.0 MetricsThe Meta TakeawayTable of Contents020406101316123456PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.42021 G

8、rayscale Investments, LLCThe Meta ThesisThe internet has always been about connecting people. Over the past three decades, internet technology has evolved, and the way we all interact with the web has evolved with it. Much has changed, but three key eras of online-based communities could be thought

9、of as: Web 1.0 - Netscape connected us online Web 2.0 - Facebook connected us into online communities Web 3.0 - Decentraland connected us into a community-owned virtual world 123456FIGURE 1: ILLUSTRATIVE EVOLUTION OF WEB COMMUNITIES11. GrayscaleAs we moved across these eras, our interactions and the

10、 mediums we used to create them expanded. We experienced firsthand how organizational architectures connecting us transformed, how computing infrastructure we relied on matured, and how control over the web ebbed and flowed between the community and big tech companies. Value Captured19902030Web 1.0W

11、eb 2.0Web 3.0PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.52021 Grayscale Investments, LLCFIGURE 2: ILLUSTRATIVE KEY FEATURES OF WEB 1.0, 2.0 & 3.022. GrayscaleThe Web 2.0 mobile internet changed how, where, when, and why we used the internet. In turn, this change

12、d the products, services, and companies we used, which changed our business models, culture, and politics the Web 3.0 Metaverse has the potential to do the same. Web 1.0Web 2.0Web 3.0InteractReadRead-WriteRead-Write-OwnMediumStatic TextInteractive ContentVirtual Economies OrganizationCompaniesPlatfo

13、rmsNetworksInfrastructurePersonal ComputersCloud & MobileBlockchain CloudControlDecentralizedCentralizedDecentralized123456PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.62021 Grayscale Investments, LLCFIGURE 3: US AVERAGE DAILY HOURS SPENT ON SELECT LEISURE ACTIVIT

14、Y3123456The Meta Market Opportunity A greater and greater portion of our attention is going towards digital activities, especially for younger generations. Today, 1/3rd of our lives (8 hours/day) is already spent watching TV, playing games, or on social media. As we spend more of our time in these d

15、igital world experiences, we also spend more of our money within these digital realms to build our social status within these online communities. 3. Goldman SachsUS Average65 & OlderBoomersGen XMillennialsGen ZUS Average65 & OlderBoomersGen XMillennialsGen ZUS KidsWatching TVPlaying Video GamesSocia

16、l Media 2.8 4.6 3.2 2.4 2 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 5.0PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.72021 Grayscale Investments, LLCFIGURE 4: GLOBAL VIRTUAL WORLD REVENUE GROWTH4Our social lives and gaming are converging and creating a large, fast-growing virtua

17、l goods consumer economy. It is estimated that revenue from virtual gaming worlds could grow from $180 billion in 2020 to $400 billion in 2025. The continued shift of game developer monetization is a key dynamic within this growth trend. Players are increasingly moving away from paying to play premi

18、um games towards free games, which developers monetize by selling players in-game items to enhance gameplay or social status within these virtual worlds. This shift is accelerating further with the transition from Web 2.0 closed corporate metaverses to Web 3.0 open crypto metaverse networks, which a

19、re: Web 2.0 Closed Corporate Metaverse: centrally owned and controlled by big tech, or; Web 3.0 Open Crypto Metaverse: democratically owned and controlled by global users.Many gamers today spend their money and hours of their time building digital wealth within Web 2.0 closed corporate metaverse wor

20、lds. The problem is, most game developers dont let players monetize their investment and efforts. Developers prohibit players from trading items with other players and keep these worlds closed so players cannot transfer their in-game wealth to the real economy. Web 3.0 open crypto metaverse networks

21、 solve this problem by eliminating the capital controls imposed on these virtual worlds by Web 2.0 platforms. This new paradigm allows users to own their digital assets as Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), trade them with others in the game, and carry them to other digital experiences, creating an entirel

22、y new free-market internet-native economy that can be monetized in the physical world. This evolution of the “creator economy” is known as “Play to Earn”. 4. Ark Invest Premium Spend In-Game Spend123456$0B$50B$100B$150B$200B$250B$300B$350B$400B$450B20202025PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER

23、 INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.82021 Grayscale Investments, LLCFIGURE 5: ILLUSTRATIVE OPEN VS CLOSED GAMING & METAVERSE EXAMPLES55. GrayscaleIn the metaverse, users dictate these types of seamless, real-world adjacent interactions across digital communities. Conversely, the closed nature of W

24、eb 2.0 corporate Metaverse platforms may put users at a disadvantage compared to Web 3.0 open crypto Metaverse networks. Established Web 2.0 corporations will need to disrupt their business models by opening up their ecosystems and removing their competitive moats. We dont yet know the path Facebook

25、 will take with their Metaverse ambitions, but theylike other Web 2.0 companieswill need to make this challenging shift in the face of pressure to meet quarterly results for shareholders. Gaming is just one of the most immediately addressable segments where value is already starting to naturally shi

26、ft to Web 3.0, but the Metaverse opportunity extends far beyond gaming. The Metaverse is estimated to be a trillion-dollar revenue opportunity across advertising, social commerce, digital events, hardware, and developer/creator monetization. EARNPAYCLOSEDOPEN123456PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

27、 & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.92021 Grayscale Investments, LLC6. Global X, App Annie, Zenith, Grand View Research, BCG7. Coingecko, MVIS, Roundhill Ball, Bloomberg (Date: 10/29/2021)FIGURE 6: GLOBAL METAVERSE POTENTIAL TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET6The total market cap of the leading Web

28、3.0 Metaverse crypto networks sits at $27.5 billion. This pales in comparison to the $900 billion market cap of Facebook, the $2 trillion market cap of the gaming sector, and the $14.8 trillion market cap of Web 2.0 companies that could shift to the Metaverse or risk disruption. FIGURE 7: MARKET CAP

29、: WEB 2.0 & 3.0 METAVERSE, FACEBOOK, GAMING7 Developers/Creators Hardware Digital Events Social Commerce Advertising $0.00T$0.20T$0.40T$0.60T$0.80T$1.00T$1.20T$1.40T0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%123456$0.03T$0.90T$1.98T$14.80T$0T$2T$4T$6T$8T$10T$12T$14T$16TWeb 3.0 MetaverseFacebook (Meta)Gaming &

30、 eSportsWeb 2.0 MetaverseWeb 3.0 MetaverseFacebook(Meta)Gaming & eSportsWeb 2.0 MetaversePLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.102021 Grayscale Investments, LLCThe Meta Web 3.0 EconomyWeb 3.0 crypto Metaverses are emerging market virtual world economies wit

31、h a continually developing complex mix of digital goods, services, and assets that generates real-world value for users. Early Web 3.0 metaverse worlds have been typically built on top of blockchain computing platforms (layer one) with a host of parties contributing to the development of the games a

32、nd in-games items that can be freely traded on the blockchain. FIGURE 8: BLOCKCHAIN-BASED GAMING STACK81234568. The BlockPLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.112021 Grayscale Investments, LLCUsers purchasing these items are starting to build a new e-commer

33、ce experience. Examples of some more popular business activities within Decentraland and other virtual world economies today are: Art Galleries, such as Sothebys, have launched allowing owners to showcase and sell their digital NFT art at auction. Business Offices: crypto businesses like Binance and

34、 others have established digital headquarters in the Metaverse where employees can meet and collaborate. Games & Casinos where players can win MANA. Advertising: digital billboards have been built by property owners to advertise to game players for a fee. Sponsored Content, such as the recently anno

35、unced Atari arcade which will feature games that can be played within Decentraland. Music Venues where DJs and musicians play music and hold concerts.FIGURE 9: METAVERSE EXPERIENCES99. Grayscale, Decentraland123456PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.12202

36、1 Grayscale Investments, LLCFIGURE 10: BLOCKCHAIN-BASED VIRTUAL ECONOMY SEGMENTS1010. Outlier VenturesThese Web 3.0 Metaverse worlds are part of a larger interconnected crypto cloud economy. These decentralized protocols interoperate with and provide the technical infrastructure to support Metaverse

37、 virtual economies. Payment Networks: Web 3.0 metaverse economies can use their own digital currency, like MANA, or the currency of the layer one base crypto cloud economy platform theyre built on, such as Ethereum (ETH) or Solana (SOL). Decentralized Finance: Decentralized exchanges allow users to

38、trade in-game items while lending platforms allow users to take out loans on their virtual land. NFT Sovereign Goods: Players can purchase NFTs from other creators and bring them into other virtual worlds to be put on display or sold. Decentralized Governance: Legal frameworks take back control of t

39、he digital economies from centralized corporations and allow a global network of Web 3.0 metaverse users to decide the rules of their collectively owned virtual space. Decentralized Cloud: File storage solutions such as Filecoin give Web 3.0 metaverse worlds a decentralized infrastructure solution t

40、o store data while services like Livepeer give virtual worlds decentralized video transcoding infrastructure. Self-Sovereign Identity: Internet-native social reputation coin (“creator coins”) data from other platforms may be transferred into the Metaverse and used for identity or credit scoring.Dece

41、ntralized Finance (DeFi) Aggregators DeFi Primitives Oracles Data Marketplaces Units of value “Internet Money”NFTsSovereignVirtual Goods Minting Houses Marketplaces Token Standards Metadata Standards Hybrid NFT+FT Physically Redeemable NFTsDecentralized Governance DAO Frameworks Voting Mechanisms St

42、aking & Slashing Multigeniture Wallets Community AuditsDecentralized Cloud Services Storage Compute Databases Query & APIsSelf-SovereignIdentity DIDs Verifiable Claims Creator CoinsSelf Custody & Access Wallets/Front End ApplicationsAgentsProgrammability LayerTransaction LayerPeer-to-Peer Networks12

43、3456PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.132021 Grayscale Investments, LLCFIGURE 11: GLOBAL ALL TIME ACTIVE METAVERSE WALLETS1111. Non Fungible 123456The Meta Web 3.0 MetricsThe combination of these innovations has created a new online experience thats alr

44、eady attracting users. Web 3.0 Metaverse virtual world users have seen rapid growth over recent years. Today, Web 3.0 Metaverse virtual worlds have nearly 50,000 all-time users (active wallets as proxy), up 10 x since the beginning of 2020. Compared to other Web 3.0 and Web 2.0 segments, Metaverse v

45、irtual world users are still in their early innings, but if current growth rates remain on their current trajectory, this emerging segment has the potential to become mainstream in the coming years. 43K0K5K10K15K20K25K30K35K40K45K50KJun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21PLEASE REVIEW

46、 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.142021 Grayscale Investments, LLCFIGURE 12: GLOBAL USERS PER SELECT CATEGORY (LOG)1212. Non Fungible, CryptoSlam, Dune Analytics, C, Goldman Sachs, Facebook Web 3.0 Metaverse virtual worlds are creating real-world value for the deve

47、lopers, third-party creators, and users building these emerging market internet-native crypto cloud economies. All-time value spent on Web 3.0 Metaverse item sales such as virtual land, goods, and services has topped $200 million.By removing the Web 2.0 centralized companies that have historically c

48、ontrolled these online spaces, Web 3.0 Metaverse virtual worlds have benefited from rapid innovation and productivity gains. Crypto virtual worlds have created a multi-million dollar primary and secondary market for creators and asset owners by eliminating capital controls and opening their digital

49、borders to free market capitalism. 50,000 412,578 2,364,576 3,450,000 220,000,000 250,000,000 2,910,000,000 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 10,000,000,000Web 3.0 VirtualGlobal Crypto123456Web 3.0 VirtualWorldsNon-Fungable TokensBlockchainGamingDecentralizedFinanceGlobalCryptoGaming/eSportsFacebookPLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER.152021 Grayscale Investments, LLCFIGURE 13: GLOBAL ALL TIME TOTAL VALUE SPENT ON COMPLETED METAVERSE SALES1313. Non Fungible14. Dove MetricsDuring Q3 of 2021, total crypto fun