上海封城及其连锁效应：量化对消费行业的影响（英）.pdf

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1、 China Market Strategy Shanghai lockdown and its ripple effect (part 2) quantifying impact on consumer sector Strategy | Strategy Figure 1: Impact across all consumer sectors Negative impact Positive impact Catering - Aesthetics, sportswear, air-conditioner, washing machine - Condiment - Cosmetics,

2、small home appliance Refrigerator Baijiu, e-cigarette - Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates 16% of China retail sales is at huge risk, given least 28 large and medium-sized cities in China have announced lockdown measures since late March. Our on-the-ground observation in Shanghai found fo

3、ot traffic of offline retail severely dropped since mid-Mar, while the citys offline/online activities remain silenced and continue to face logistic challenges regardless of the easing arrangements. We believe such control measures imposed have put both online and offline consumption on a downward s

4、piral. On a positive note, the government is ready to launch multiple stimulus measures to pump up consumption. Survey results echo our concerns. A CQi survey pointed to a more bearish employment outlook, weakening household income and consumption sentiment in the last month, while the service secto

5、r remains a soft spot. Consumers tend toward saving than spending, amid the deterioration in the macro environment. The incremental impact weighs down. Following a continuous decline in March, our channel check found almost all sectors are impacted. We believe sectors with high-exposure to tier 1 ci

6、ties, offline retail, and logistics bottleneck are key victims of the lockdown, including catering, condiment, sportswear, aesthetics, and home appliance (air-conditioner/washing machine), while refrigerator should benefit from booming stocking demand. Our channel check indicates the catering sector

7、s SSS recovery at 60-80% in March, with further decline in April; sportswears demand growth slowed down significantly in 2H of March, with some brands experiencing negative growth into April; and aesthetics companies revenue in March and 1H of April is largely erased. We expect moderate rebound in c

8、onsumption to take place during the Labour Holiday if control measures are lifted in time. Earnings estimates revisions reflect the reality. We revisited our earnings estimates to reflect a more bearish earnings outlook as a result of lockdowns. In particular, we lowered FY22 EPS forecast for cateri

9、ng companies by 11% to 31%, while we cut Haitian/Anta/Li Ning/Proya by 6.0%/12.2%/5.5%/5.2% respectively. We lower price targets across our coverage, and downgrade Haitian to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM. We see Haier as a defensive play in this difficult time on the back of healthy exposure to refrigera

10、tors. 19 April 2022 Equity Research Asia Pacific | China DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered

11、 in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Research Analysts Edmond Huang 852 2101

12、6701 edmond.huangcredit- Jessie Xu 852 2101 6887 jessie.xucredit- Jesalyn Wong 852 2101 6720 jesalyn.wongcredit- Frank Su 852 2101 6037 frank.sucredit- Veronica Song 852 2101 6757 veronica.songcredit- Harriet Liu 852 2101 6591 harriet.liucredit- Miriam Lu 852 2101 6499 miriam.lucredit- 19 April 2022

13、 China Market Strategy 2 Focus charts Figure 2: Contribution to the country by the 28 cities currently under lockdown Figure 3: Covid-19 cases after lockdown imposed in Jilin City, Changchun and Shanghai Source: State Council, local media, Credit Suisse Note: Covid-19 data is based on local symptoma

14、tic + asymptomatic cases. Data as of 16-Apr-2022. Source: CCTV news reports Figure 4: China E-commerce Logistics Index (ELI) Figure 5: Spending propensity% of families that prefer to spend more, rather than save more Source: Wind Source: CQi surveys. CQi is a product of Credit Suisse APAC Equities a

15、nd not part of Credit Suisse Equity Research Figure 6: Recovery rate of SSS/table turn vs 2019 trended down in March Figure 7: Refrigerator outperforming amid pandemic-driven city lockdown during Mar-Apr 2022 Note: Overall table turn recovery for Haidilao and SSS recovery for other brands. Source: C

16、ompany data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: AVC, Credit Suisse estimates 12.6%22.2%16.0%15.8%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%PopulationExportRetail salesGDP04,0008,00012,00016,00020,00024,00028,00005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5003/1/223/3/223/5/223/7/223/9/223/11/223/13/223/15/223/17/223/19

17、/223/21/223/23/223/25/223/27/223/29/223/31/224/2/224/4/224/6/224/8/224/10/224/12/224/14/22ChangchunJilin CityShanghai (RHS)07-Mar: Jilin lockdown14-Mar: Changchunlockdown28-Mar: Shanghailockdown90100110120130140150160170Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18Dec-18Mar-19Jun-19Sep-19De

18、c-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22China E-commerce Logistic Index(ELI)ELI：Business Volume index6.08.010.012.014.016.018.0Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19Jan-20Feb-20Mar-20Apr-20May-20Jun-20Jul-20Aug-20Sep-20Oct-20Nov-20Dec-20Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-2

19、1Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22% of families that prefer to spendmore, rather than save more40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Aug-21 Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21 Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22HaidilaoJiumaojiuTai ErXiabuCoucou-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%March 202228-Mar to 3-Apr4-Apr to 10-Apr11-Apr to 30-Apr(estimat

20、es)ACFridgeWashing machine Small kitchen appliance19 April 2022 China Market Strategy 3 Valuation comp table Figure 8: Consumer companies estimates changes Company Ticker Rating (prev.) Current Price Target Price (prev.) TP change (%) Upside /downside (%) 2022E EPS (prev.) 2022E EPS Change (%) 2022E

21、 P/E Catering Yum China YUMC.N O 41.8 58.0 - 38.6% 1.44 (1.69) -14.6% 29.1 Haidilao 6862.HK N 16.2 16.5 (14.5) 13.8% 2.1% 0.15 (0.22) -30.9% 85.9 Jiumaojiu 9922.HK O 16.7 21.0 - 25.7% 0.31 (0.35) -11.4% 44.0 Xiabu Xiabu 0520.HK O 3.9 5.0 - 27.6% 0.07 (0.09) -29.0% 48.6 Condiment Haitian 603288.SS N

22、(O) 90.4 96.0 (128.0) -25.0% 6.2% 1.73 (1.84) -6.3% 52.4 Sportswear Anta 2020.HK O 93.1 130.0 (145.0) -10.3% 39.6% 3.21 (3.66) -12.2% 23.5 Li Ning 2331.HK O 64.0 88.0 (92.0) -4.3% 37.6% 1.83 (1.94) -5.5% 28.4 Cosmetics Proya 603605.SS O 184.1 225.0 (251.0) -10.4% 22.2% 3.45 (3.63) -5.2% 53.4 Aesthet

23、ics Angelalign 6699.HK U 123.5 108.0 (117.0) -7.7% -12.6% 2.07 (2.14) -1.7% 48.4 Haohai (H) 6826.HK N 38.7 39.0 (40.0) -2.5% 0.8% 2.54 (2.58) -1.7% 12.4 Haohai (A) 688366.SS N 85.5 89.0 (101.0) -11.9% 4.1% 2.54 (2.58) -1.7% 33.7 Home appliance Haier Smart Home (A) 600690.SS O 24.7 35.2 (36.5) -3.6%

24、42.8% 1.62 (1.63) -0.7% 15.2 Haier Smart Home (H) 6690.HK O 27.4 42.2 (43.8) -3.6% 54.4% 1.62 (1.63) -0.7% 14.1 Midea 000333.SZ O 58.7 90.2 (99.0) -8.9% 53.8% 4.56 (4.74) -3.8% 12.9 Gree Electric 000651.SZ O 32.4 46.1 (49.0) -5.9% 42.4% 4.64 (4.71) -1.5% 7.0 Baijiu Wuliangye 000858.SZ O 169.9 260 (2

25、66) -2.3% 53.0% 6.94 (7.04) -1.4% 24.5 Shanxi Fen Wine 600809.SS N 265.7 286 (296) -3.4% 7.6% 6.14 (6.29) -2.4% 43.3 E-Cigarettes Smoore 6969.HK O 18.5 24.7 (30.2) -18.2% 33.8% 0.71 (0.72) -1.6% 21.2 Note: Price as of 15-Apr-2022. O = Outperform, N = Neutral, U = Underperform. Source: Company data,

26、Credit Suisse estimates Herman Chan, Jinfeng Shi, and Cary Ruan of Credit Suisse Securities (China) Limited (CSS) provided administrative and other support in the preparation of this research report that do not require a licence. CSS is a Sino-foreign joint venture between Credit Suisse AG and Found

27、er Securities Co., Ltd. CSS is not licensed to provide securities investment advisory service by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in the Peoples Republic of China. 19 April 2022 China Market Strategy 4 Shanghai lockdown and its ripple effect (part 2) quantifying the impact on consumer sect

28、or On-the-ground reality check and policy development Including Shanghai, at least 28 large and medium-sized cities in China have announced lockdown measures since late March, which contributed to 16.0% of national total retail sales in China last year. Our on-the-ground observation in Shanghai foun

29、d foot traffic of offline retail severely dropped since mid-March. Though easing arrangements by stages in Shanghai have been announced, the citys offline activities remain largely muted, while e-commerce and food delivery are still struggling with logistic and capability challenges. We believe the

30、control measures imposed have put both online and offline consumption on a downward spiral, and we see the consumer sector as being at major risk if the prolonged pandemic and further tightening continue across China. At the same time, we note the proactive stance taken by the government to shoot fo

31、r consumption recovery via multiple stimulus measures. CQi survey confirms The control measures have resulted in a negative outlook and sentiment across the board, including both employers and households. Findings from a CQi survey supports our concerns, namely a gloomy employment outlook, a deterio

32、rating household income outlook and consumption sentiment. Service firms have weak hiring plans, reflecting soft household consumption in 2Q22. Consumers are facing a double-dip in both disposable income and income expectation, which undermines their willingness to spend money. Hit almost everywhere

33、 Our channel check demonstrates incremental impacts in April are of concern, following visible downward trends in March. As of mid-April, sectors with expanded decline from last month include catering, sportswear, aesthetics, as well as certain condiment and home appliance catering sectors SSS recov

34、ery at approximately 60-80% in March 2022, which further lowered in April; sportswears demand growth slowed down significantly in the second half of March, with some brands experiencing negative growth into April; while aesthetics companies revenue in March and 1H of April is largely erased. For hom

35、e appliance, we found monthly sales decline improved in the second week of April from March, with refrigerator outperforming air-conditioners and washing machines. We believe refrigerators serving the stay-home purpose shall remain relatively defensive. We expect the rest of the consumer sector to r

36、emain exposed to the lockdown, especially those with high-exposure to tier 1 cities, offline retail, and logistics bottlenecks. We expect a moderate rebound in consumption to take place during the upcoming Labour Holiday if control measures are lifted in time. Earnings revision and stock picks We re

37、viewed earnings, price targets and ratings across the sector to reflect a more bearish earnings outlook given the pause in consumption. In particular, we lowered FY22 EPS forecast for catering companies by 11% to 31%, while Haitain/Anta/Li Ning/Proya also have notable revisions of -6.0%/-12.2%/-5.5%

38、/-5.2%. We lower price targets across our coverage, and downgrade Haitian to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM. We see Haier as a defensive play in this difficult time on the back of healthy exposure to refrigerators (32% of revenue in 2021). Areas that contributed to 12.6% of national population, 15.8% of na

39、tional GDP and 22.2% of exports in 2021 are in full or partial lockdown. Saving is the preferred option over discretionary spending. Catering, condiment, sportswear, aesthetics, air-conditioners, washing machines take the biggest hit. Haier is more defensive. 19 April 2022 China Market Strategy 5 Ta

40、ble of Contents Focus charts 2 Valuation comp table 3 Shanghai lockdown and its ripple effect (part 2) quantifying the impact on consumer sector 4 On-the-ground reality check and policy development . 4 CQi survey confirms . 4 Hit almost everywhere . 4 Earnings revision and stock picks . 4 On-the-gro

41、und reality check and policy development 7 CQi survey confirms 11 Hit almost everywhere 13 Catering: severely disrupted by the tightening measures . 13 Condiment: 2C companies less impacted . 15 Sportswear: rest stop before running again . 16 Cosmetics: online channel remains key for recovery . 17 A

42、esthetics: consumption sentiment on a downward spiral . 18 Home appliance: refrigerator as the most defensive category . 20 Baijiu: eyes on recovery progress in May . 22 E-cigarette: regulation is the main focus . 23 Yum China Holdings, Inc. 25 Haidilao International Holding Ltd 27 Jiumaojiu Interna

43、tional Holdings Ltd 29 Xiabu Xiabu 31 Haitian Flavouring & Food 33 Anta Sports 35 Li Ning 37 Proya 39 Angelalign Technology 41 Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology 43 Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology 45 19 April 2022 China Market Strategy 6 Haier Smart Home 47 Haier Smart Home 49 Midea Group 5

44、1 Gree Electric 53 Smoore Intl Hldg 55 19 April 2022 China Market Strategy 7 On-the-ground reality check and policy development While there are positive developments in Shanghai, where lockdowns are being lifted by stages, we cannot rule out the possibility of Omicron spreading out to the Yangtze Ri

45、ver Delta (YRD) in the neighbourhood. More importantly, Shanghai is not the only city to have announced full lockdown measures. At least 28 large and medium-sized cities in China have announced lockdown measures including full-lockdown (全域静态管理) and partial lockdown (城区静态管理/封控管理) since late March, ma

46、inly in the Yangtze River Delta affected by Shanghai and Northeast China impacted by Jilins pandemic, according to local media report (link?). The 28 cities contributed about 12.6% of national population, 15.8% of national GDP and 22.2% of exports in 2021, given that YRD is Chinas largest manufactur

47、ing hub. Moreover, the 28 cities also contributed about 16.0% of national total retail sales, as YRD is also the region with the greatest consumption potential in China. The real impact could be larger than the figures suggested above, as logistics and supply chain are under increasing pressure beca

48、use of escalated restriction measures. We believe the control measures imposed have put both online and offline consumption on a downward spiral, and we see the consumer sector as being at significant risk if the prolonged pandemic and further tightening continue across China. Figure 9: Contribution

49、 to the country by the 28 cities currently under lockdown Figure 10: Covid-19 cases after lockdown imposed in Jilin City, Changchun and Shanghai Source: State Council, local media, Credit Suisse Note: Covid-19 data is based on local symptomatic + asymptomatic cases. Data as of 16-Apr-2022. Source: C

50、CTV news reports Figure 11: Commuters slide since mid-March after lockdown imposed in Shanghai Figure 12: Recovery rate of SSS/table turn vs 2019 trended down in March Note: Data as of 16-Apr-2022. Source: Shanghai Metro Note: Overall table turn recovery for Haidilao and SSS recovery for other brand